New Projection Spells Bad News for Biden

( – President Joe Biden’s reelection bid might be close to being doomed as a new forecast suggests an advantage for former President Donald Trump ahead of the November election.

Trump is presently ahead of Biden in numerous national poll aggregates, including a Thursday morning average from RealClearPolling (RCP) that places Trump with a 1% lead based on eleven polls conducted throughout May and June.

According to a forecast that considers changes in national polls and polling discrepancies from 2020, if Trump maintains or increases his 1% lead by Election Day, Biden might face a substantial defeat, The Daily Caller reports.

Trump’s victory in the Electoral College against Hillary Clinton in 2016, which was the largest such win for a Republican since 1988 with a 306-232 margin, occurred despite him trailing by 2% in the national popular vote.

The decision in that election hinged on approximately 100,000 votes across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Conversely, in 2020, Biden secured the Electoral College by the same margin, 306-232, but his popular vote margin was significantly larger than Clinton’s, at 4.5%, decided by a little over 40,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

Achieving a presidential victory while losing the popular vote, or even winning by a margin smaller than 4.5%, will prove challenging for Democrats, should the upcoming election reflect the patterns of 2016 and 2020.

A national context heavily favoring Democrats will be essential, as Trump leading the popular vote by even a narrow margin like 1% suggests a potentially larger electoral victory than in 2016.

What might an election night under these conditions entail? A projection, adjusted for each state’s 2020 outcome by the shifts in national polls and accounting for the polling inaccuracies of 2020, indicates a substantial advantage for Trump, showing him winning by a greater electoral vote margin than in his 2016 triumph.

In this projection, swing states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are categorized as ‘Likely Trump’ (between 6 and 9.99%), while other traditionally Democratic-leaning swing states like Michigan and Nevada are considered ‘Lean Trump’ (between 2 and 5.99%). Trump is also projected to narrowly flip Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota and New Hampshire by a ‘Tilt’ margin (.01-1.99%).

Even some steadfastly Democratic states are predicted to have closer margins than usual, with Illinois, Oregon, and New Jersey being labeled ‘Likely Biden,’ according to this projection.

The same designation applies to Colorado and New Mexico, each tagged as ‘Lean Biden.’

Noteworthy is the projection that Biden would secure Maine and Virginia, which strongly favored Democrats in 2020, only by ‘Tilt’ margins.

It is also probable that, if the final states to be declared on election night are Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia, then a former president will return to the White House for the first time since 1893.

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