(TheRedAlertNews.com) – A prediction boding terribly for President Joe Biden’s hopes for reelection has come from Nate Silver, a statistician and writer, who says that the incumbent is not only well on the way to losing the 2024 election to Donald Trump but also the White House has no clues how to prevent that.
In his “Silver Bulletin” newsletter released on Monday, Silver, the co-founder and former chief editor of the renowned polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, made it clear the campaign didn’t seem well for Biden.
He highlighted Biden’s advanced age and his noticeable avoidance of major media appearances, such as the customary Super Bowl interview, as primary concerns for his reelection efforts.
“If you’d asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald Trump,” the statistician wrote.
He further elaborated that in recent months, “Biden’s situation has become considerably worse.”
“If he were 10 years younger, he might still be a 65/35 favorite. But if his campaign is substantially encumbered by his age, he’s probably the underdog,” Silver forecasted.
In a previous newsletter from November, Silver wrote that the Democratic Party should contemplate endorsing an alternative candidate for the 2024 elections if Biden cannot conduct a traditional campaign.
“Personally, I crossed the rubicon in November, concluding that Biden should stand down if he wasn’t going to be able to run a normal reelection campaign — meaning, things like conduct a Super Bowl interview,” Silver observed.
He acknowledged the significant risk but argued that “Biden can still win.”
“But he’s losing now and there’s no plan to fix the problems other than hoping that the polls are wrong or that voters look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it,” the observer commented.
Silver’s analysis also touched upon Biden’s current standing in national polls, as compiled by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, where Trump appears to be leading.
It further dwelled on the recent report by special counsel Robert Hur on Biden’s mishandling of classified documents, which referred to the president as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
“Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have a lot of extremely rational concerns about the prospect of a Commander-in-Chief who would be 86 years old by the end of his second term,” Silver wrote.
He said the president should dispel Americans’ worries about his age, “or he’s probably going to lose to Trump.”
